🗳️ Elections
Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round)

Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round) — At least 53%

Live
Resolves Oct 4, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
3%
No
97%
No (97%)Yes (3%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
Loading...
Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$5
Liquidity
$11

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 3%. Kalshi has moved down 3pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 53% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round)

Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round) — At least 37%
95%
Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round) — At least 42%
94%
Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round) — At least 40%
93%
Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round) — At least 44%
73%
Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round) — At least 48%
51%
Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round) — At least 45%
41%
Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round) — At least 46%
24%
Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round) — At least 50%
7%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
3%
probability of YES
Kalshi
3%Check
TGWA
Create Widget
Resolution
Oct 4, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$5
Liquidity$11
CategoryElections
StatusOpen