Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent — At least 49%

Live

Resolves Oct 25, 2027Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

35%

65%

No (65%)Yes (35%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 35%.

About this market

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 49% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent

Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent — At least 44%

98%

Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent — At least 45%

97%

Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent — At least 46%

91%

Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent — At least 47%

80%

Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent — At least 48%

61%

Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent — At least 50%

16%

Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent — At least 51%

10%

Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent — At least 52%

Trade this marketLive prices

Avg probability

35%

probability of YES

Kalshi

35%Check

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Resolution

Oct 25, 2027

Market is open

Market stats

24h volume—

Liquidity$124

CategoryElections

StatusOpen