🗳️ Elections
Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory

Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory — Lula da Silva, 3-6%

Live
Resolves Oct 25, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
1%
No
99%
No (99%)Yes (1%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$568
Liquidity
$808

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 1%.

About this market

If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is within 3% to 6%, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory

Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory — Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3%
42%
Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory — Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6%
35%
Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory — Lula da Silva, 0-3%
13%
Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory — Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9%
7%
Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory — Flávio Bolsonaro, 6-9%
6%
Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory — Lula da Silva, ≥9%
1%
Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory — Lula da Silva, 6-9%
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
1%
probability of YES
Kalshi
1%Check
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Resolution
Oct 25, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$568
Liquidity$808
CategoryElections
StatusOpen