🗳️ Elections

Christopher Luxon out by September 30?

Live
Resolves Oct 1, 2026Polymarket
Volume-weighted avg
2%
No
98%
No (98%)Yes (2%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
$17k

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 2%. Polymarket has moved down 1pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christopher Luxon ceases to be Prime Minister of New Zealand for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Christopher Luxon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christopher Luxon and the government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related Markets

Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
2%
probability of YES
Polymarket
TGWA
Resolution
Oct 1, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity$17k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen