🗳️ Elections

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

Live

Resolves Jan 1, 2027Polymarket

Volume-weighted avg

23%

77%

No (77%)Yes (23%)

Check on Polymarket →

Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 23%.

About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Elections

24%

Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?

Elections

21%

Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?

Elections

Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

Elections

Trade this marketLive prices

Avg probability

23%