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📊 Macro
Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026

Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026 — Above 4.25%

Live
Resolves Jan 4, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
35%
No
65%
No (65%)Yes (35%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Macro
Vol 24h
$5k
Liquidity
$172

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 35%. Kalshi has moved up 7pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the first published Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) value for December 31, 2026 is above 4.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026

Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026 — Above 3.50%
99%
Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026 — Above 3.75%
99%
Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026 — Above 4.00%
94%
Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026 — Above 4.50%
20%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
35%
probability of YES
Kalshi
35%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jan 4, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$5k
Liquidity$172
CategoryMacro
StatusOpen