🎯 Other
How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot?
How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot? — At least 8
Live
Resolves Feb 1, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
43%
No
57%
No (57%)Yes (43%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
$4k
Liquidity
$4k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 43%.
About this market
If the number of Democratic Representatives who vote for a candidate other than Hakeem Jeffries, or vote Present, on the first roll call for Speaker of the House at the opening of the 120th Congress is at least 8 before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot?
How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot? — At least 1
94%
How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot? — At least 3
71%
How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot? — At least 5
69%
How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot? — At least 12
30%
How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot? — At least 15
14%
How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot? — At least 20
13%
Resolution
Feb 1, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
CategoryOther
StatusOpen