🗳️ Elections

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

Live

Resolves Jan 1, 2027Polymarket

Volume-weighted avg

98%

No (98%)Yes (2%)

Check on Polymarket →

Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 2%. Polymarket has moved down 5pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Elections

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

Elections

Netanyahu out before the next Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting?

Elections

54%

Will PA legalize recreational marijuana before 2028?

Elections

45%

Trade this marketLive prices

Avg probability

probability of YES