🗳️ Elections
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18)
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 250
Live
Resolves Oct 20, 2026KalshiVolume-weighted avg
2%
No
98%
No (98%)Yes (2%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$1
Liquidity
$289
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 2%.
About this market
If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 250 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18)
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 150
96%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 160
92%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 170
65%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 180
65%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 190
41%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 200
25%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 210
15%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 220
10%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 230
4%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 240
1%
Resolution
Oct 20, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$1
Liquidity$289
CategoryElections
StatusOpen