Tocantins: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (runoff) — Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥16%

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Resolves Oct 25, 2027Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

97%

No (97%)Yes (3%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 3%.

About this market

If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff in the state of Tocantins is at or above 16%, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Tocantins: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (runoff)

Tocantins: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (runoff) — Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1%

93%

Tocantins: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (runoff) — Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥4%

80%

Tocantins: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (runoff) — Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥7%

70%

Tocantins: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (runoff) — Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥10%

31%

Tocantins: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (runoff) — Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥13%

11%

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Avg probability

probability of YES

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3%Check

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Resolution

Oct 25, 2027

Market is open

Market stats

24h volume—

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CategoryOther

StatusOpen