SOFR at end of Q4 2026 — Above 4.75%

Live

Resolves Jan 4, 2027Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

25%

75%

No (75%)Yes (25%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 25%. Kalshi has moved up 24pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the first published SOFR value corresponding to the final U.S. business-day SOFR reference date for Q4 2026 is above 4.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · SOFR at end of Q4 2026

SOFR at end of Q4 2026 — Above 3.00%

99%

SOFR at end of Q4 2026 — Above 3.50%

98%

SOFR at end of Q4 2026 — Above 3.25%

98%

SOFR at end of Q4 2026 — Above 3.75%

85%

SOFR at end of Q4 2026 — Above 4.00%

64%

SOFR at end of Q4 2026 — Above 4.25%

54%

SOFR at end of Q4 2026 — Above 4.50%

10%

Trade this marketLive prices

Avg probability

25%

probability of YES

Kalshi

25%Check

TG WA

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Resolution

Jan 4, 2027

Market is open

Market stats

24h volume$2k

Liquidity$1k

CategoryOther

StatusOpen