🗳️ Elections
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 8

Live
Resolves Oct 6, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
15%
No
85%
No (85%)Yes (15%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$3k
Liquidity
$1k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 15%.

About this market

If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 8 from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 4
93%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 6
64%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 10
15%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 12
7%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 14
3%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
15%
probability of YES
Kalshi
15%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Oct 6, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$3k
Liquidity$1k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen