🗳️ Elections
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18)
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 30
Live
Resolves Oct 20, 2026KalshiVolume-weighted avg
17%
No
83%
No (83%)Yes (17%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$68
Liquidity
$554
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 17%.
About this market
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 30 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18)
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 10
97%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 15
91%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 20
71%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 25
36%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 35
9%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 40
6%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 45
3%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 50
2%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 75
2%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18) — Above 100
1%
Resolution
Oct 20, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$68
Liquidity$554
CategoryElections
StatusOpen