Will the court extend its block on DHS's Trump ads? — Before Oct 26, 2026

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 97%.

About this market

If the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York extends the October 11, 2026 temporary restraining order and Section 705 stay, or replaces it with a preliminary injunction or stay, so that DHS funds remain barred from paying for the challenged advertisements after October 25, 2026, in Common Cause v. Department of Homeland Security, No. 1:26-cv-08882 (S.D.N.Y.) before Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.