🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
25%
No
75%
No (75%)Yes (25%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$4k
Liquidity
$67k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 25%. Kalshi has moved up 1pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
54%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
37%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
33%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
22%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
14%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
13%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
8%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
2%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
25%
probability of YES
Kalshi
25%Check
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$4k
Liquidity$67k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen