🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
13%
No
87%
No (87%)Yes (13%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$80
Liquidity
$32k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 13%. Kalshi has moved down 3pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
54%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
37%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
33%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
25%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
22%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
14%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
8%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
2%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
13%
probability of YES
Kalshi
13%Check
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$80
Liquidity$32k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen