🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
25%
No
75%
No (75%)Yes (25%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
Loading...
Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$445
Liquidity
$60k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 25%. Kalshi has moved down 8pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
53%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
40%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
35%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
20%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
17%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
13%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
8%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
5%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
25%
probability of YES
Kalshi
25%Check
TGWA
Create Widget
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$445
Liquidity$60k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen