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Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6.5+ pts

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
25%
No
75%
No (75%)Yes (25%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$13k
Liquidity
$14k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 25%.

About this market

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 6.5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 0.5+ pts
68%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
68%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1.5+ pts
63%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
60%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2.5+ pts
52%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
47%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3.5+ pts
44%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
42%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4.5+ pts
36%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
33%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5.5+ pts
30%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 0.5+ pts
28%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6+ pts
28%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
27%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1.5+ pts
24%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
23%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2.5+ pts
20%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
19%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
17%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 8+ pts
14%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
13%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 9+ pts
9%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
3%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
3%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
3%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
25%
probability of YES
Kalshi
25%Check
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$13k
Liquidity$14k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen