🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
15%
No
85%
No (85%)Yes (15%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$336
Liquidity
$26k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 15%. Kalshi has moved down 2pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
52%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
37%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
36%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
24%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
22%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
11%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
8%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
5%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
15%
probability of YES
Kalshi
15%Check
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$336
Liquidity$26k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen