🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3.5+ pts
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
44%
No
56%
No (56%)Yes (44%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$11k
Liquidity
$16k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 44%.
About this market
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 3.5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 0.5+ pts
70%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
66%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1.5+ pts
62%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
59%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2.5+ pts
54%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
46%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
43%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4.5+ pts
37%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
35%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 0.5+ pts
30%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5.5+ pts
29%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6+ pts
27%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
26%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6.5+ pts
25%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1.5+ pts
24%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
21%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2.5+ pts
20%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
20%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
17%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
14%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 8+ pts
14%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 9+ pts
8%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
6%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
3%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
3%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$11k
Liquidity$16k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen