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Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2.5+ pts

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
51%
No
49%
No (49%)Yes (51%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$13k
Liquidity
$10k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 51%.

About this market

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 2.5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 0.5+ pts
67%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
63%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1.5+ pts
57%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
56%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
46%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3.5+ pts
40%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
39%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4.5+ pts
36%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 0.5+ pts
36%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
32%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
30%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1.5+ pts
26%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
24%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6+ pts
23%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5.5+ pts
22%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2.5+ pts
21%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6.5+ pts
17%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
16%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
16%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 8+ pts
9%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
9%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 9+ pts
6%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
2%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
51%
probability of YES
Kalshi
51%Check
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$13k
Liquidity$10k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen