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Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3.5+ pts

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
41%
No
59%
No (59%)Yes (41%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$10k
Liquidity
$10k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 41%.

About this market

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 3.5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 0.5+ pts
75%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1.5+ pts
70%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
70%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
64%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
58%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2.5+ pts
57%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
49%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4.5+ pts
42%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5.5+ pts
40%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
39%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6+ pts
33%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6.5+ pts
28%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 0.5+ pts
24%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
21%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1.5+ pts
19%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
19%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2.5+ pts
16%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
16%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
13%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 8+ pts
12%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 9+ pts
11%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
8%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
8%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
3%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
41%
probability of YES
Kalshi
41%Check
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$10k
Liquidity$10k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen