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Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1.5+ pts

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
67%
No
33%
No (33%)Yes (67%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$9k
Liquidity
$8k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 67%.

About this market

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 1.5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 0.5+ pts
70%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
68%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
59%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2.5+ pts
56%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
50%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3.5+ pts
44%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
40%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4.5+ pts
37%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
35%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5.5+ pts
29%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6+ pts
26%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 0.5+ pts
26%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
26%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1.5+ pts
25%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6.5+ pts
25%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
21%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2.5+ pts
20%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
19%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
18%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 8+ pts
13%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
12%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 9+ pts
9%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
6%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
3%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
3%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
3%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
67%
probability of YES
Kalshi
67%Check
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$9k
Liquidity$8k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen