🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
19%
No
81%
No (81%)Yes (19%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$10k
Liquidity
$9k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 19%.
About this market
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
59%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
48%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
37%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
33%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
30%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
28%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
22%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
20%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
17%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6+ pts
14%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
14%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 9+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
9%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
9%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
8%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 8+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
6%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
3%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$10k
Liquidity$9k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen