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Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4.5+ pts

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
42%
No
58%
No (58%)Yes (42%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$7k
Liquidity
$6k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 42%.

About this market

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 4.5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory

Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 0.5+ pts
73%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
66%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1.5+ pts
62%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
61%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2.5+ pts
60%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
56%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3.5+ pts
51%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
48%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
36%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6+ pts
30%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5.5+ pts
29%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 0.5+ pts
28%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
26%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6.5+ pts
24%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1.5+ pts
22%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
20%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
19%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2.5+ pts
18%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
16%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 8+ pts
12%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
9%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 9+ pts
9%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
6%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
6%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
4%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
42%
probability of YES
Kalshi
42%Check
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$7k
Liquidity$6k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen