🗳️ Elections
Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 0.5+ pts
Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
72%
No
28%
No (28%)Yes (72%)
Probability History
Loading...
Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$6k
Liquidity
$6k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 72%.
About this market
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 0.5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Texas Senate margin of victory
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1+ pts
69%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 1.5+ pts
66%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2+ pts
64%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 2.5+ pts
57%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3+ pts
49%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 3.5+ pts
45%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4+ pts
43%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 4.5+ pts
40%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5+ pts
38%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 5.5+ pts
30%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 0.5+ pts
29%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6+ pts
29%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
27%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 1.5+ pts
25%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 6.5+ pts
24%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2+ pts
21%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 2.5+ pts
20%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 3+ pts
18%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 7+ pts
18%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 4+ pts
13%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 8+ pts
13%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 5+ pts
10%
Texas Senate margin of victory — James Talarico, 9+ pts
9%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 6+ pts
7%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 7+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 8+ pts
5%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 9+ pts
4%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 13+ pts
3%
Texas Senate margin of victory — Ken Paxton, 11+ pts
3%
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$6k
Liquidity$6k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen