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Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? — China

Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2031Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
41%
No
59%
No (59%)Yes (41%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
$743
Liquidity
$24k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 41%. Kalshi has moved up 5pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If China is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? — United States
57%
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? — Russia
2%
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? — European Space Agency
1%
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? — India
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
41%
probability of YES
Kalshi
41%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jan 1, 2031
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$743
Liquidity$24k
CategoryOther
StatusOpen