🗳️ Elections

Will Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum?

Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2030Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
12%
No
88%
No (88%)Yes (12%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$11
Liquidity
$1k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 12%. Kalshi has moved down 11pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If Northern Ireland agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to hold a border poll on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
12%
probability of YES
Kalshi
12%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jan 1, 2030
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$11
Liquidity$1k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen