🗳️ Elections
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 4, 2026?

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 4, 2026? — 38.1%

Live
Resolves Oct 4, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
22%
No
78%
No (78%)Yes (22%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$556
Liquidity
$425

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 22%.

About this market

If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.1% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 4, 2026?

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 4, 2026? — 38.2%
42%
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 4, 2026? — 37.9%
12%
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 4, 2026? — 38.0%
11%
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 4, 2026? — Below 37.9%
11%
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 4, 2026? — 38.3%
8%
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 4, 2026? — Above 38.5%
1%
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 4, 2026? — 38.4%
1%
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 4, 2026? — 38.5%
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
22%
probability of YES
Kalshi
22%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Oct 4, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$556
Liquidity$425
CategoryElections
StatusOpen