Will Trump pardon anyone by October 31?

Live

Resolves Nov 1, 2026Polymarket

Volume-weighted avg

32%

68%

No (68%)Yes (32%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 32%.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.