Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?

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Resolves Jan 1, 2028Polymarket

Volume-weighted avg

46%

54%

No (54%)Yes (46%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 46%.

About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.