Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?
Market intelligence
Polymarket currently prices this at 3%. Polymarket has moved down 1pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Minas Gerais. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).