Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?
Market intelligence
Polymarket currently prices this at 31%.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if no Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No" immediately. Hormuz Agreement: A "Hormuz Agreement" will be considered to have occurred if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Hormuz Agreement component to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcem