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🗳️ Elections
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?

Live
Resolves Nov 4, 2026Polymarket
Volume-weighted avg
59%
No
41%
No (41%)Yes (59%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$5k
Liquidity
$153k

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 59%.

About this market

The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf

All outcomes · Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
34%
Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
5%
Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
4%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
59%
probability of YES
Polymarket
59%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Nov 4, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$5k
Liquidity$153k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen