📊 Macro
Recession this year?
Recession this year? — Starts
Live
Resolves Jan 31, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
5%
No
95%
No (95%)Yes (5%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Macro
Vol 24h
$2k
Liquidity
$936k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 5%. Kalshi has moved up 1pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution
Jan 31, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$2k
Liquidity$936k
CategoryMacro
StatusOpen