📊 Macro
Recession this year?

Recession this year? — Starts

Live
Resolves Jan 31, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
5%
No
95%
No (95%)Yes (5%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Macro
Vol 24h
$2k
Liquidity
$936k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 5%. Kalshi has moved up 1pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.

Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
5%
probability of YES
Kalshi
TGWA
Resolution
Jan 31, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$2k
Liquidity$936k
CategoryMacro
StatusOpen