🗳️ Elections
Texas Governor margin of victory

Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 12+ pts

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
17%
No
83%
No (83%)Yes (17%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
Loading...
Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
$1k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 17%. Kalshi has moved up 7pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Texas Governor margin of victory

Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 3+ pts
60%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 6+ pts
28%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 9+ pts
20%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 15+ pts
15%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 3+ pts
14%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 21+ pts
6%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 18+ pts
5%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
17%
probability of YES
Kalshi
17%Check
TGWA
Create Widget
Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity$1k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen