🗳️ Elections
Texas Governor margin of victory

Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 6+ pts

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
28%
No
72%
No (72%)Yes (28%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$1k
Liquidity
$6k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 28%. Kalshi has moved up 15pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas by 6 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Texas Governor margin of victory

Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 3+ pts
60%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 9+ pts
20%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 12+ pts
17%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 15+ pts
15%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Hinojosa, 3+ pts
14%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 21+ pts
6%
Texas Governor margin of victory — Abbott, 18+ pts
5%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
28%
probability of YES
Kalshi
28%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$1k
Liquidity$6k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen