🗳️ Elections
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/14 - 9/20)

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/14 - 9/20) — Above 200

Live
Resolves Sep 22, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
15%
No
85%
No (85%)Yes (15%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$398
Liquidity
$2k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 15%. Kalshi has moved down 5pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 200 from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/14 - 9/20)

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/14 - 9/20) — Above 150
80%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/14 - 9/20) — Above 175
34%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/14 - 9/20) — Above 250
1%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/14 - 9/20) — Above 225
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
15%
probability of YES
Kalshi
15%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Sep 22, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$398
Liquidity$2k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen