📊 Macro
Unemployment in November
Unemployment in November — Above 4.5%
Live
Resolves Dec 4, 2026KalshiVolume-weighted avg
2%
No
98%
No (98%)Yes (2%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Macro
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
$1k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 2%. Kalshi has moved down 88pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.5% in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Unemployment in November
Unemployment in November — Above 3.7%
99%
Unemployment in November — Above 3.8%
87%
Unemployment in November — Above 3.9%
86%
Unemployment in November — Above 4.0%
74%
Unemployment in November — Above 4.3%
61%
Unemployment in November — Above 4.4%
50%
Unemployment in November — Above 4.1%
46%
Unemployment in November — Above 4.2%
22%
Unemployment in November — Above 4.6%
2%
Unemployment in November — Above 4.7%
2%
Unemployment in November — Above 4.8%
1%
Unemployment in November — Above 5.0%
1%
Unemployment in November — Above 4.9%
1%
Resolution
Dec 4, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity$1k
CategoryMacro
StatusOpen