📊 Macro
Unemployment in October
Unemployment in October — Above 4.0%
Live
Resolves Nov 6, 2026KalshiVolume-weighted avg
96%
No
4%
No (4%)Yes (96%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Macro
Vol 24h
$72
Liquidity
$1k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 96%. Kalshi has moved up 23pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Unemployment in October
Unemployment in October — Above 3.7%
99%
Unemployment in October — Above 3.8%
97%
Unemployment in October — Above 3.9%
87%
Unemployment in October — Above 4.1%
60%
Unemployment in October — Above 4.2%
28%
Unemployment in October — Above 4.3%
14%
Unemployment in October — Above 4.6%
10%
Unemployment in October — Above 4.7%
6%
Unemployment in October — Above 4.4%
5%
Unemployment in October — Above 5.0%
5%
Unemployment in October — Above 4.5%
4%
Unemployment in October — Above 4.9%
2%
Unemployment in October — Above 4.8%
2%
Resolution
Nov 6, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$72
Liquidity$1k
CategoryMacro
StatusOpen