📊 Macro
Unemployment in October

Unemployment in October — Above 4.4%

Live
Resolves Nov 6, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
5%
No
95%
No (95%)Yes (5%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Macro
Vol 24h
$24
Liquidity
$967

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 5%. Kalshi has moved down 9pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.4% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Unemployment in October

Unemployment in October — Above 3.7%
99%
Unemployment in October — Above 3.8%
97%
Unemployment in October — Above 4.0%
87%
Unemployment in October — Above 3.9%
87%
Unemployment in October — Above 4.1%
60%
Unemployment in October — Above 4.2%
28%
Unemployment in October — Above 4.3%
14%
Unemployment in October — Above 4.6%
10%
Unemployment in October — Above 4.7%
6%
Unemployment in October — Above 5.0%
5%
Unemployment in October — Above 4.5%
4%
Unemployment in October — Above 4.8%
2%
Unemployment in October — Above 4.9%
2%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
5%
probability of YES
Kalshi
5%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Nov 6, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$24
Liquidity$967
CategoryMacro
StatusOpen