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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026?

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026? — Magnitude of at least 6.4

Live
Resolves Oct 11, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
28%
No
72%
No (72%)Yes (28%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
$1k
Liquidity
$504

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 28%.

About this market

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 11, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026?

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026? — Magnitude of at least 6.6
7%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026? — Magnitude of at least 7.0
5%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026? — Magnitude of at least 6.8
3%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
28%
probability of YES
Kalshi
28%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Oct 11, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$1k
Liquidity$504
CategoryOther
StatusOpen