What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026? — Magnitude of at least 7.0

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Resolves Oct 11, 2026Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

96%

No (96%)Yes (4%)

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Probability History

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Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 4%.

About this market

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 11, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 7.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026?

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026? — Magnitude of at least 6.4

12%

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026? — Magnitude of at least 6.6

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026? — Magnitude of at least 6.8

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Avg probability

probability of YES

Kalshi

4%Check

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Resolution

Oct 11, 2026

Market is open

Market stats

24h volume$293

Liquidity$281

CategoryOther

StatusOpen