🎯 Other

Will a Category 4 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?

Live

Resolves Dec 1, 2026Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

98%

No (98%)Yes (2%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 2%. Kalshi has moved up 1pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If a Category 4 hurricane makes landfall in Tampa (defined coastal area: the coastline within the municipal boundaries of the City of Tampa, Florida) from October 9, 2026 at 4:00:00 PM EDT until, but excluding, December 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET, as reported by the National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes.

Other

Will a Category 3 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?

Other

Will a Category 4 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?

Other

50%

Will a Category 3 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?

Other

Trade this marketLive prices

Avg probability

probability of YES

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