🎯 Other

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Live

Resolves Jan 1, 2027Polymarket

Volume-weighted avg

96%

No (96%)Yes (4%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 4%.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.