Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?
Market intelligence
Polymarket currently prices this at 45%. Polymarket has moved down 16pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier. This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market. Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count. A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.