Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 16%. Polymarket has moved up 2pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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