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🗳️ Elections

Will the 2028 Democratic presidential primary be fractured?

Live
Resolves Sep 1, 2028Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
40%
No
60%
No (60%)Yes (40%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
—

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 40%.

About this market

If the lowest winning vote share in any state's 2028 Democratic presidential primary or caucus is below 25% in the final round of counting, for contests held before Sep 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
40%
probability of YES
Kalshi
40%Check
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Resolution
Sep 1, 2028
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity—
CategoryElections
StatusOpen