🗳️ Elections

Will the DOJ fine Nvidia over the Groq deal in 2026?

Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
13%
No
87%
No (87%)Yes (13%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$5
Liquidity
$2k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 13%. Kalshi has moved up 3pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the U.S. Department of Justice announces a fine or civil/criminal monetary penalty imposed on Nvidia, or agreed to by Nvidia in a settlement, concerning the Groq licensing deal announced on December 24, 2025 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
13%
probability of YES
Kalshi
13%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jan 1, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$5
Liquidity$2k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen