Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Closed

Resolves Jan 1, 2027Polymarket

Volume-weighted avg

50%

No (50%)Yes (50%)

Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Closed

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 50%.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.